Journal of value creating in Business Management

Modeling the Valuation of Myket Brand Using Weibull Distribution

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article (Quantified)

Authors

Mohammad Reza Radfar 1
Maryam Zolfonoon 2

1 Department of Financial Management & accounting, ST.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Financial Management, STC, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/jvcbm.2025.521329.1554
Abstract
This research aims to model the decline in the value of the Myket brand, as one of the leading platforms for distributing mobile applications in Iran, using Weibull distribution. Data were collected from Myket's financial statements (including operating income of 357 billion Tomans and evaluation costs of 8 billion Tomans per year (2024) and non-financial indicators such as 26 million monthly active users and reports from global platforms such as Google Play and App Store. The statistical population consisted of 10 active digital brands in Iran, of which Myket was purposefully selected. The research method was quantitative and descriptive-analytical, and the analyses were conducted with Python (lifelines package) and R (survival package) software and the maximum likelihood method. The findings showed that the Weibull model predicted the trend of brand value decline with high accuracy (R²=0.92) and identified the decrease of 2.6 million monthly active users and increasing competition with platforms such as Cafe Bazaar as the main factors of the decline in value. Monte Carlo simulation showed that a 10% decrease in users increases the acceleration of brand value decline by 15%. This research was conducted with Providing a localized model suggests that Myket managers maintain and enhance brand value by strengthening the digital platform and developing innovations such as expanding digital content. This model can also be generalized to other native Iranian digital platforms.

Keywords

Brand valuation
brand value depreciation
Myket
Weibull distribution
Monte Carlo simulation
digital platform

Subjects

Journal of value creating in Business Management

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 21 December 2026

  • Receive Date 27 May 2025
  • Revise Date 07 September 2025
  • Accept Date 17 November 2025

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